White Christmas Odds
Betting On Christmas Day Snow
It’s that time of year again when our thoughts turn to Christmas and in particular, will it snow on Christmas Day? Below we take a look at the odds and probability of a White Christmas.
How Likely Is A White Christmas?
For many people, snow is what the festive period is all about. We see it portrayed on Christmas cards, in movies, and there’s plenty of songs about it; from Sammy Cahn’s ‘Let It Snow’, to that old Christmas favourite ‘Good King Wenceslas’.
Nevertheless, for people in the UK, Christmas is just at the beginning of the season when snow becomes possible, so betting on a White Christmas is not quite the ‘sure thing’ that many of us think. Of course, the bookies are happy to take bets on a White Christmas, but what are the real chances of a White Christmas?
In Britain, wintry weather is more likely between January and March than December. Snow falls on average about 5 days in December, 7.6 days in January and 6.8 days in February and 6 days in March; so in many ways betting on a White Christmas is a long shot.
It wasn’t always that way though. Waking up to a White Christmas was more common in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the calendar was changed in 1752, bringing Christmas Day back by 12 whole days – the original 12 days of Christmas.
Of course recent climatic change has brought higher than average temperatures and this generally reduces the odds of a white Christmas. However, on the other side of the snowman, we’re also experiencing what is beginning to be known as ‘weird weather’, short freak weather occurrences, so anything can and probably will happen.
What Defines A White Christmas
But just what is a White Christmas? For children of all ages everywhere, a White Christmas means a complete covering of snow which falls and settles on Christmas day in the morning – snowman building, snowball fights, and of course sledging.
However, the definition most widely used, particularly by the bookies, is at least one snowflake falling in a specific location during the 24 hours of December 25 at a specified location – quite often at British Airports. Paddy Power allows you to bet on snowfall at various airports around the country. You can pick from London Heathrow, Edinburgh (Airport), Manchester (Airport), Belfast (Airport) and many more.
So can anybody predict a White Christmas? Well, weather forecasters can forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days before with a pretty good level of accuracy. You can check out the long-range weather forecast for the UK here. In statistical terms, a snowflake has fallen somewhere in the UK on Christmas day 38 times in the last 52 years, a 73% success rate for a White Christmas, so we can expect almost three-quarters of all Christmases to be white.
But a single snowflake doesn’t really make a White Christmas any more than a single swallow makes a summer, and snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. There’s only been a widespread covering of snow in the UK (40% coverage) four times in the last 51 years. The last full White Christmas was Christmas 2010 and it was a record-breaker. There was snow on the ground at 83% of UK weather stations – the highest amount ever recorded. Mind you, there seems to have been more Christmas snow around in recent years anyway; we also had a white Christmas in 2009 with 13% of Met Office stations recording snow floating to the ground, and 57% reporting it lying deep and crisp and even.
Defining what makes a White Christmas is all about fresh snowfalls. Payouts on Xmas snow are based on the odds of the white stuff actually coming down, rather than just lying around from previous snowfalls and then turning to slush. In 2010 the snowy weather meant that bookies were inundated with White Christmas bets as the odds were pretty good; Scotland’s main cities were odds-on for snow falling, Birmingham and Manchester were evens, and London was a 5/4 against. It was a snowy nightmare for the bookies with many expecting a million-pound payout, for one lucky punter it looked as though all his Christmases had come at once.
Graphic designer, Cliff Bryant woke on Christmas morning to find that all 24 places he’d punted on White Christmas had seen snowfall that morning. Cliff was in line for a £7 million payout. But when he tried to claim his winnings he was told that the cashier who took his accumulator bet shouldn’t have accepted it and that it was invalid. Some bookies rules state that accumulators, where you make a series of single bets that are all linked, can’t be placed on the chance of a White Christmas and should only be accepted as single bets – which meant instead of making millions, Cliff won just £31.78p from his bet. Not quite the gold, frankincense and myrrh he was expecting.
Odds For A White Christmas
So what’s the chance of a White Christmas this year? Well, the British Met Office longterm forecast currently states “Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December” that seems to indicate this winter could be colder than normal and the chances of a White Christmas improve. But who really knows?
So, if you fancy a flutter on whether a flurry of snowflakes will flutter to the ground this Christmas Day the bookies are waiting to hear from you. In London (Heathrow), a YES to a White Christmas will fetch a price of 8/1. Birmingham, which generally has a higher chance of snow than London, is 8/1 and Glasgow and Edinburgh come in at 4/1. You can normally find the lastest odds under the tab/link ‘Specials’ or ‘Novelty’ on a bookmakers website. You can Click Here To Bet With Paddy Power.
At least Santa is pretty much guaranteed a White Christmas up at the North Pole, but as for the rest of us… well, perhaps we’ll have to keep dreaming.
Terms and Conditions for Snow on Christmas Day bets vary from bookmaker to bookmaker – please check terms before your placing a bet. Odds stated on this page are correct at time of publishing.