The never-ending cycle of US Presidential elections can get boring very quickly. No sooner is a President in office then the whole will-they-wont-they run again starts.
Now, in 2024, they are back on the campaign trail but has any President ever caused as much controversy as Donald Trump?
It seems like half of American loves him and the other half loathes him. But which side will win out in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
A better question, is do any of us actually care? The answer is yes if you're looking for something interesting to have a bet on!
Honestly, the last few weeks have been popcorn worthy as firstly Biden tanked during the first live debate.
It was more sad than funny. Previous gaffs had been covered up under various guises but on live TV his decline was there for all to see.
Determined to cling on, he refused ot throw in the towel until it became very clear that he would almost certainly lose the election.
Then there was an assassination attempt on Trump, and with no other real options, Biden conceded, endorsing Kamala Harris.
With the Democratic National Convention drawing closer, she is all but assured of the nomination so at the moment it looks like a two horse race between Trump and Harris with Trump leading in the polls in key states.
However, bookmakers are quick off the mark and they too have given the edge to Trump for the win.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
Donald Trump is currently the favourite in this closely run contest. Whether it was the bump he got from the live debates, his choice of JD Vance as his running mate or his resilience in the face of the shooting, there are plenty of Americans on his side.
For that reason, Betfred is currently offering odds of 8/13 on Trump to win in November 2024. Incidentally, only a few months ago, those odds were 6/4 so he is even more of a favourite to win against Harris than he was against Biden!
Of course, we all know that anything can happen on the road to the White House and Harris isn't out of the race by any stretch of the imagination.
Her odds reflect this and are just marginally higher on 11/8.
She is running on a platform founded on her existing role as Vice President and the fact that she would be the first woman and woman of colour to hold office.
The problem is that she's not particularly well liked. Her previous presidential bid back in the 2020 campaign was left wanting but given that there are almost no other options at this stage in the 2024 game, the Democratic party are going to rally behind her.
But will it be enough? She has a lot of work to do between now and polling day in November. That includes picking a running mate, live debates and of course getting her message out to the more than 350 million Americans who will decide her fate.
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 8/13 |
| Kamala Harris | 11/8 |
| Michelle Obama | 50/1 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jnr | 100/1 |
| Hillary Clinton | 100/1 |
| JD Vance | 100/1 |
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And while most of us think the dash for the White House is a two-horse race, we can't forget that the Democratic Party haven't even confirmed their nominee yet.
We all assume it will be Harris but anything can happen. Even though Michelle Obama is 50/1, it's just an option to make up the numbers as the Obamas have already endorsed Harris.
Election Specials
Not content to offer us odds on who will win, Betfred has cleverly put together a few other ‘specials' for us to ponder.
- 2024 Democratic Vice President Nominee
- Winning Party
With regards to the markets above, the Democratic Party will select its vice president nominee at the National Convention, in Chicago, from August 19-22, 2024.
Based on the last election cycle, we can expect more ‘specials' to come from the U.S. Presidential Election betting market.
They will include things such as the popular vote versus the electorate college, how many states each candidate will win – you get the idea.
But they won't become available until much closer to the actual election. As soon as they do, we will go through them all and offer some tips on which are the best bets to place.
Things To Consider
Here are a couple of interesting facts to consider when you're going through the US Election betting markets.
Ties in the Electoral College
In the 1800 presidential election, Thomas Jefferson and his running mate, Aaron Burr, both received 73 electoral votes, leading to a tie.
This situation ultimately had to be resolved by the House of Representatives, which chose Jefferson as president.
Landslide Victory
In the 1936 presidential election, Franklin D. Roosevelt won re-election in a landslide, carrying 46 out of 48 states.
He received 98.5% of the electoral votes, the highest percentage in U.S. history.
Closest Electoral Margin
The 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon was one of the closest in history.
Kennedy won the popular vote by just 0.17% and the electoral vote by 303 to 219.
Third-Party Impact
In the 1992 presidential election, Ross Perot, an independent candidate, received nearly 19% of the popular vote.
While he didn't win any electoral votes, his candidacy had a significant impact on the outcome by drawing support away from the major party candidates, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
Faithless Electors
Occasionally, members of the Electoral College don't vote for the candidate they were pledged to support.
In the 2016 election, for example, there were seven faithless electors, the most in over a century. They voted for various alternative candidates.
Incumbent Defeats
Incumbent presidents seeking re-election have been defeated in several notable elections, including Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H.W. Bush in 1992.
Non-Presidential Outcomes
In some presidential elections, the candidate who won the popular vote did not become president.
This happened in the elections of 1876 (Rutherford B. Hayes), 1888 (Benjamin Harrison), and most famously in 2000 (George W. Bush), where Al Gore won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College.
Third-Party Candidates
Third-party candidates have occasionally had a significant impact on presidential elections.
In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a Progressive (Bull Moose) candidate and won more votes than the incumbent president, William Howard Taft, effectively splitting the Republican vote and allowing Woodrow Wilson to win.
Historic Firsts
Several presidential elections marked historic firsts.
The 2008 election saw the first African American president, Barack Obama, elected.
In 2016, the first woman, Hillary Clinton, was nominated as a major party candidate for president.
Longest Campaign
The 1896 presidential campaign between William McKinley and William Jennings Bryan is considered one of the longest and most expensive in U.S. history.
It was characterised by extensive fundraising, campaign tours, and a significant focus on economic issues.
Ultimately, whichever way you bet, it's going to come down to the wire. So do a bit of research from objective sources, if you can find any, and that may help you decide what to bet on.
