A Betting Guide To The UEFA Euro 2024 Golden Boot – 10 Things You Need To Consider
One of the most popular ways to bet on Euro 2024 is to predict the top scorer, but it can be a tricky thing to get right with so many factors in play.
First of all, you have to pick a player from a team that you think will go the furthest in the competition.
Your player may be able to find the back of the net blindfolded, but it won't help if his country doesn't get out of the group stages.
In Euro 2020 the Golden Boot honours went to two players. Czech Republic's Patrik Schick and Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo both topped the table with five goals each.
That also means that the all time top goalscorer for the UEFA European Championship is Cristiano Ronaldo. With five tournaments under his belt, he has 14 goals making him the all-time leading scorer in the history of the competition.
He will undoubtedly be back for Euro 2024, and as prolific a goalscorer as he may be, he is not the favourite when it comes to the betting markets.
That honour goes to Kylian Mbappe. With odds as short as 5/1 with most bookmakers, it looks like many are backing the French striker to step up and do the business for his country.
After all, he did score eight goals in the 2022 World Cup so it's not hard to believe he can continue his incredible form into this tournament.
Just behind him in the odds is England's Harry Kane, with odds of around 11/2. He wasn't too far off the mark in Euro 2020 (held in 2021) when he scored four times.
If England can go all the way, he has as good a chance as any to win the Euro 2024 Golden Boot.
What Is The Golden Boot?
If you're not familiar with the term Golden Boot, it is the award given to the top goalscorer in a football tournament.
It is commonly awarded in major tournaments such as the FIFA World Cup, the UEFA European Championship (the Euros), and domestic leagues like the English Premier League and La Liga.
The player who scores the most goals during the tournament is awarded the Golden Boot.
If there is a tie in the number of goals scored, tiebreakers like assists or fewer minutes played are often used to determine the winner.
In terms of betting, you'll find the odds under the term ‘Top Goalscorer'.
Stats Will Help You
If your country is in with a solid chance in Euro 2024 it will be tempting to simply stick a few quid on your team's top goal scorer.
It's understandable, but it's not a particularly strategic way of betting. So, I'm going to take you through a few key points that you need to think about before you splash the cash!
1. Player's Current Form
It goes without saying that you should check the recent performance of the player.
For example, Harry Kane may be having the season of his life with Bayern Munich, after all, he has scored 36 goals for them this season, so he could continue that in Euro 2024.
However, Cole Palmer for Chelsea is also on a goal-scoring streak and narrowly missed out on the Premier League Golden Boot to Erling Haaland in 2024.
Depending on Gareth Southgate's plans, either could very well end up with plenty of scoring chances for England at the Euros.
The difference is that Cole Palmer is as long as 100/1 for the Golden Boot in the betting.
So for Euro 2024, the tip is to wait until all of the participating countries have named their squads before zoning in on any one specific player.
2. Team's Strength
There have been a criminally high amount of incredible players who never got the glory they deserved simply because, while they may have been awesome, unfortunately, their national team was not.
That is why it is important to seriously consider how far a country will go in Euro 2024 before backing a striker for the Golden Boot.
Look at each group and determine which teams are most likely to move to the next stage and who they will potentially meet.
After all, the longer a country stays in the tournament, the more chances a player has to score.
3. Opposition's Defence
Let's be realistic here, your bet really only counts if your player has the opportunity to score.
If it looks like your team will be up against countries known for their defensive style of play, it will seriously reduce your player's chances of finding the back of the net.
The good news is that in the Group stages of Euro 2020, there were only two games that ended in a nil-all draw.
In fact, here is how the Group Stages were broken down:
Only One Goal Scored
- Italy 1–0 Wales
- Denmark 0–1 Finland
- Finland 0–1 Russia
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia
- France 1–0 Germany
Total: 8 games
Two Goals Scored
- Turkey 0–2 Wales
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria
- Finland 0–2 Belgium
Total: 3 games
Three Goals Scored
- Turkey 0–3 Italy
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland
- Belgium 3–0 Russia
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia
Total: 7 games
Four or More Goals Scored
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey
- Russia 1–4 Denmark
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland
- Portugal 2–4 Germany
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland
- Portugal 2–2 France
- Germany 2–2 Hungary
Total: 10 games
Summary
Only one goal: 8 games
Two goals: 3 games
Three goals: 7 games
Four or more goals: 10 games
That bodes well for strikers, so consider the defences the player will face. Players who go up against weaker teams may have a better chance of scoring more goals.
4. Playing Position
Strikers and attacking midfielders are more likely to score goals compared to defenders or defensive midfielders.
I know that's a no-brainer, and while defensive midfielders have occasionally scored, they won't win the Golden Boot. Stick to the tried and tested strikers.
5. Set-Piece Duty
Penalties count towards the Golden Boot, and to reiterate how important penalty scorers are in terms of Top Goal Scorer, in Euro 2020, Ronaldo scored all five of his goals in the Group stages.
Of those five goals, three were penalties, two of which were in one game against France.
Portugal finished third in the group but got through as the top-ranking third-place finisher before being beaten 1-0 by Belgium in the Round of 16.
Yet, that was enough for Cristiano Ronaldo to get the Golden Boot!
6. Injury Record
Sure, this one is a bit self-explanatory, but avoid players who have a habit of hobbling off the pitch.
Look for players who have been fit all season and who are likely to be the main striker for their team in the tournament.
7. Previous Tournament Performance
We've already talked a lot about the last Euros, but it's important to check which players are still in action, which are getting plenty of domestic league time, and which of them are still going to be top pick for a starting eleven spot.
Players who have a good track record in big tournaments might be safer bets.
8. Team Tactics
There's a big difference between teams that are constantly pushing forward and those that are happy to sit back, park the bus, and take their chances on the break.
Of course, more often than not, the opposition will determine some of the game tactics but if you're looking for strikers, pick one that is in a team that loves to take as many shots on goal as possible.
Teams that are happy to score a goal and simply sit back and defend for the rest of the match won't help you win your bet.
9. Group Stage Opponents
In tournaments like the World Cup or Euros, the group stage can provide easier opponents for top teams, giving strikers a chance to score many goals early.
The Italians scored seven goals in their Group stage in Euro 2020 because they were up against Turkey, Switzerland and Wales. They also didn't concede any.
The Dutch also had an easy run of it against Austria, North Macedonia and Ukraine.
However, England had to face off against Czech Republic, Croatia and Scotland and only managed TWO goals in the Group stages!
So take a good look at the group teams and figure out which has the easiest opposition and is most likely to top the group and progress through the next stages.
10. Manager's Strategy
Team tactics can change from game to game, but over time, a manager's strategies can become a little more obvious.
Some managers may prioritise defence over attack, limiting scoring opportunities, so take a look back at their most recent results and avoid those with very low scores or those that play very defensively.
Golden Boot Betting Strategies Conclusion
Betting on the UEFA Euro 2024 Golden Boot involves a careful analysis of multiple factors.
From a player's current form and team strength to their opposition's defensive capabilities and playing position, each element plays a crucial role in predicting the tournament's top scorer.
Additional considerations like set-piece duties, injury records, previous tournament performance, team tactics, group stage opponents, and the manager's strategy further whittle your choices.
By weighing these factors, you can make a more informed bet, increasing your chances of successfully predicting the player who will take home the coveted Golden Boot.
